Warm October, cold winter?

A tweet flashed by a couple of days ago hoping that a warm October might indicate a cold winter:

It’s a straightforward enough hypothesis, although one I think we all can agree seems a little far fetched. Given I have UK regional data all ready from some previous quick analyses (Scottish winter weather and improving Septembers) I thought I’d have a quick explore.

October temperature linked to winter temperature for Scotland. Each point represents a year.

October temperature linked to winter temperature for Scotland. Each point represents a year.

As you can see, it’s just noise. Still, as my supervisor says – ‘a null result in still a result’. So the conclusion I draw is that October temperature is not an indicator of winter (DJF) temperature.

You can access the code for the climate data work here.

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